Evaluating the Feasibility and Impact of Petrol-to-CNG Vehicle Retrofitting in Nigeria’s Post-Subsidy Economy.

Abstract

The removal of petrol subsidy in Nigeria in May 2023 increased petrol price from ₦198 to over ₦1,150 per litre by 2025, creating severe cost burden for transport operators. The Federal Government introduced the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative to promote petrol-to-CNG retrofitting as a cheaper and cleaner alternative. This study evaluated the feasibility and impact of retrofitting in the post-subsidy economy. A mixed-methods design was used across Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt and Kano. Data were obtained from 372 vehicle owners and CNG technicians using structured questionnaire, complemented by secondary fuel price and emission data. Economic viability was assessed using cost-per-km and payback models, while emission reduction was calculated using standard factors. Analysis was done with SPSS v26 using descriptive statistics, paired t-test and regression. Results showed fuel cost per 100km reduced from ₦10,580 on petrol to ₦3,078 on CNG, representing 70.9% saving. Payback period was 3.1 months for commercial and 8.7 months for private vehicles. Emissions reduced by 23.3% for CO₂, 75% for CO and 33.3% for NOx. High conversion cost with mean 4.62 and inadequate refueling stations with mean 4.51 were major barriers. Infrastructure availability significantly influenced adoption willingness with R² 0.68, beta 0.62, p 0.001. The study concludes retrofitting is economically viable and environmentally beneficial, requiring subsidy on conversion and infrastructure expansion.